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The Oracle spoke and my Wednesday prediction came true. The Fed won't raise interest rates until the data allow. In other words, a decision has been put off using the usual fuzzy language. Remember, the Fed committee is comprised of economists and you will never find a one-handed one "On one hand". But what was interesting to me was the excuse given that "heightened uncertainties abroad" translation: the collapse in Chinese share prices had been a major factor.
If this is not the most blatant admission that the Fed's job is primarily to keep the stockmarket bubbles inflated, I don't know what is. So there we have it. The original rationale for the formation of the Federal Reserve Bank was to keep the value of the dollar intact, not to prevent recessions. I guess two hits out of three ain't bad. But they have strayed a very long way in 20 to 30 years. So how did stockmarkets react? This week's rally has firmed up my interpretation of the Elliott waves.
Below is the Dow hourly chart showing the action from the wave 3 spike low on 24 August Previously, I was unsure where my C wave would terminate, but yesterday's spike high to the 16, level was all the evidence I needed to state that in all likelihood, the Wave C of 4 blue was now in, and wave 5 down could start. In addition, the spike high yesterday occurred with a large negative-momentum divergence , which added to the evidence. Last week, the market burst above my green line of resistance , which is now support.
So to verify I have the odds for the above analysis well on my side, I need to see a move back below this line. That should occur fairly soon if we are truly at the start of wave 5. Below this is the chart as of yesterday. As I forecast, there was a host of buy stops that were triggered as the market moved up past the highs. That is typical market action whenever the speculators are lined up mostly on one side of the market in this case, the short side.
Sentiment has been extremely bearish with hedge funds and small speculators heavily net short. Using my 'headline indicator', I was confident that the market was indeed ready to rally. Whenever you see a lop-sided market such as this, all it takes to set off the firecracker is a move towards the obvious stop-loss levels.
These are readily made apparent by a glance at your chart. And this can produce a very rapid short-term profit for those traders that understand where the path of least resistance lies. Popular Courses. What is Spread Betting? Key Takeaways Spread betting refers to speculating on the direction of a financial market without actually owning the underlying security. Compare Accounts. The offers that appear in this table are from partnerships from which Investopedia receives compensation. Related Terms Futures Futures are financial contracts obligating the buyer to purchase an asset or the seller to sell an asset at a predetermined future date and price.
Forex Spread Betting Definition Forex spread betting allows speculation on the movements of the selected currency without actually transacting in the foreign exchange market. Position A position is the amount of a security, commodity or currency which is owned by an individual, dealer, institution, or other fiscal entity.
Positions can be long or short. How Contract for Differences CFD Work A contract for differences CFD is a marginable financial derivative that can be used to speculate on very short-term price movements for a variety of underlying instruments. Derivative A derivative is a securitized contract between two or more parties whose value is dependent upon or derived from one or more underlying assets.
Its price is determined by fluctuations in that asset, which can be stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, or market indexes. It yields a profit if the asset's price moves dramatically either up or down. Partner Links. Related Articles.
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Read full article. By Noor Zainab Hussain 24 July , pm. Story continues. Latest stories. Business Wire. Yahoo Canada Style. The Guardian. Motley Fool. Associated Press. Globe Newswire. Its wood-accented sports book gambling lingo for the casino within the casino where you can wager on sporting events resembles a cross between an upscale sports bar and a midtier accounting firm.
Some gamblers hunch over workstations identical to the one Jimmy sits at, feverishly entering fresh bets. Others wander around the floor clutching touchscreen tablet devices that they use to tap in spur-of-the-moment wagers. There are occasional cheers when a big play happens, but mostly there's a palpable tension, a sense that everyone around you is engaged in intense concentration.
Jimmy squints through his glasses at the screens in front of him as Peralta goes after the second pitch. Another miss. Newly updated odds appear. The count is 0 and 2, and at this point, Jimmy could hedge the bet he made 45 seconds ago by entering a counterwager—with attractively long odds—that Peralta will actually get on base. Jimmy opts to sit tight, which turns out to be a wise decision—the third pitch comes and Peralta goes down swinging.
He has money down on the outcome of the game, but he has also bet on specific at-bats, the performances of various players, and which team will win a particular set of three innings. Jimmy looks a little drained by the accumulation of microdramas. Jimmy is operating more like a daytrader than a traditional casino sports bettor, moving in and out of positions on the fly, looking for hedges, capitalizing on fleeting moments of inefficiency. And that is not an accident.
Since , the sports book at the M has been run by Cantor Gaming , a division of the Wall Street financial services outfit Cantor Fitzgerald. The resort's new bookmaker openly boasts that it's bringing the pace and style of Wall Street trading to betting on baseball, football, and basketball—and dabbling in everything from horse racing to golf. This style of on-the-fly wagering while the game unfolds, known as in-running, didn't exist in Vegas casinos when Cantor Gaming arrived.
Other big casinos in town give sports gamblers a narrow range of betting opportunities and a limited amount of time in which to bet. The game is the market. Why not let people bet the market? Amaitis is sitting at the rear of the M sports book, looking commanding in a sharp black suit and a white shirt that's open at the neck. His hair is slicked back in a style fashionable among financial execs around the time of the original Wall Street flick.
Cantor has generated a lot of buzz with the original technology behind its sports book operation, especially the eDeck tablets—touchscreen wireless devices that can be used to bet from anywhere in the casino. But the cornerstone of the operation is a piece of number-crunching software called Midas. It functions like the predictive computer programs that Amaitis dealt with on Wall Street: Midas acquires information, processes it, finds mathematical patterns and correlations, and uses all of that to divine the ever-shifting odds of sporting events.
The system is robust enough to handle the play-by-play handicapping that keeps Jimmy E. During basketball season, things move so quickly that the bettors at the M have about eight seconds to consider a wager before the odds change. Amaitis insists that Cantor Gaming's departure from the traditional style of sports books is the future, and some casinos are coming around to the idea. The Venetian and Palazzo, situated on the northern end of the Strip, launched Cantor's sports operations technology last fall.
To many people on Wall Street, gambling is a dirty word. Overlords at firms like Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan take great pains to differentiate the sober, serious profession of investing from the irresponsible, impulsive act of betting. Conversely, many traditional investment houses are eager to dismiss newfangled equity trading techniques as something closer to spins of the roulette wheel than to long-term investment strategies.
That is not investing—it's gambling. The stigma associated with the term became even more pronounced after the financial meltdown of late At Senate hearings this April in which Goldman Sachs execs were grilled about the collapse of their mortgage-backed securities—a collapse that threatened to bring down the entire US economy—the worst put-down that senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri could conceive of was, "You had less oversight than a pit boss in Las Vegas. It was in the thick of this debacle, March , that Cantor Gaming rolled out its M Resort sports book operation, an enterprise that flagrantly, deliberately blurs the line between investing and gambling.
Why aren't they being pilloried? For starters, Cantor Fitzgerald doesn't have to deal with stockholders, individual investors, or the press the way its higher-profile competitors on Wall Street do. Cantor is a private company that derives much of its income from being the middleman in trades between major banks.
Also unlike others in the finance industry, it never begged the government for hundreds of millions of dollars to cover its bad investments. But Cantor is small enough that nobody on Wall Street really worries about what they're up to. Amaitis insists that Cantor's gambling operation is no more likely to cause a stink than the fact that Goldman Sachs bought four casinos. While it's true that the real estate division of Goldman did acquire the Stratosphere, two branches of Arizona Charlie's, and another Nevada outfit in April , Goldman execs aren't telling The Wall Street Journal that they want to "turn gamblers into traders" the way Amaitis is.
Pressed further on this point, Amaitis insists that he doesn't worry about the potential for stigma. Amaitis anticipates that Cantor Gaming will control 15 percent of Nevada's sports betting this year. Not money earned—just total bets taken. And that does seem to be the plan. Amaitis views casino sports books as underdeveloped resources.
Vegas casinos have traditionally regarded sports betting as an amenity for guests rather than as a serious opportunity for profit. Casino executives neglect sports books because taking bets on athletic events seems like a risky proposition. They like guests to play craps, slots, and baccarat, games in which a favorable outcome for the house is all but guaranteed.
From the point of view of casino owners, the result of a sporting event is incredibly uncertain, and they have no control over it. Experienced sports bettors, known as smart-money gamblers, can win far more steadily than someone playing roulette or pai gow poker.
And a major upset can require a huge payout. For all these reasons, many casinos have decided that it's best to minimize their risks by posting odds that stay in line with those of the other casinos in town, keeping betting limits low, and discouraging wagers by expert gamblers.
We do trades all day with Goldman, Deutsche, Citibank. You think those guys are stupid? Amaitis' scrappiness and his willingness to use technology to open untapped markets fit right in with the ethos of Cantor Fitzgerald. It is, after all, the firm that in became the first to do fully electronic US bond market trades with customers. The swagger even survived September 11, , when its New York headquarters on floors through of One World Trade Center was destroyed.
More than two-thirds of its New York staff perished, and the company's primary data center was decimated. But a skeleton crew of Cantor staffers was able to get back online and resume trading just 48 hours after the attack. You win. The Action A pass seems likely. Not a bad time to bet big on a turnover. The Resolution The Vikings don't turn over the ball, but they do end the drive with a punt. The Resolution Oof. After an epic drive, Vikings kicker Ryan Longwell completes a yard field goal.
The Play Minnesota has the ball on its own 18 and is again making risky pass attempts. The Resolution Big risk, big reward! The Play The Vikings have only 79 seconds to go 64 yards if they want to take the lead. The Resolution A yard touchdown pass from Favre with 40 seconds to go.
Translation: Ka-ching! Cantor's latest innovation is the Midas algorithm, which is constantly being refined and fed reams of new statistical data. Even with Midas, however, sporting events are too volatile for Cantor to always end up on the right side of all the wagers it takes. But that's OK: The point isn't to nail the outcome of every contest; that's a sucker's game. There's only one sure thing in sports gambling: the standard commission, known as the vigorish, that casinos charge when they take bets.
When your wins are effectively balancing out your losses, the vigorish starts to add up. In this light, Cantor's business model begins to look more like E-Trade than a conventional sports book. Cantor will make that money by taking far more bets than are made at present, enough that the vigorish will dwarf the income other casinos now make with their smaller and safer sports books.
Which would you rather have? Vegas has never seen this level of technological firepower, but Amaitis insists that it's just the beginning. He likens the Midas program's abilities to Wall Street's first foray into computerization nearly 40 years ago, before people realized how the increased speed of trading opened up many exciting—or frightening, depending on your point of view—new investment opportunities.
This year, Cantor was accepting bets on the outcome of NFL games months before the season started. But Amaitis wishes he could take more granular bets before kickoff. After all, more opportunities to bet means more commissions for Cantor. He dreams of being able to offer programmed sports betting that will allow gamblers to put in bid orders, just as you would with an electronic stock purchase.
Before the game begins, you'll be able to set your account so that a bet will automatically be placed if, for example, a team is ever a six-point underdog. You'd also be able to set it up to place a bet on the other side, say, if that number drops from six to four. Once your bids are in, you won't even have to watch the game. The ideas that led to Midas were born almost 15 years ago, over a lavish dinner at Cliveden House, an elegant manor outside London.
Amaitis was supping with Andrew Garrood, a mathematician turned derivatives trader he'd just met in a private suite at the Ascot Racecourse. They were both there to watch a leg of the Royal Ascot, one of the most important horse-racing events in the UK. But they spent much of their time discussing the resemblance between brokers and bookies.
The two must have made for quite a contrast. Garrood is a genteel Englishman with an upper-crust accent. The street-smart Cantor exec, then head of the company's European brokerage operation, was deemed coarse and uncouth by London standards. He was the target of a harassment suit by a former employee, and the British tabloids dubbed him the Brooklyn Bruiser. But they were both excited by the idea of a Cantor-backed sports-betting enterprise. The ubiquity of gambling in the UK was an eye-opener for Amaitis.
There are legal betting shops on nearly every corner, and having a punt on a footy match—a wager on a soccer game—is as common as having a pint at the pub. Garrood knew enough about gambling to tell Amaitis that it had a great deal of overlap with the sort of work he did trading derivatives for Japan's Sanwa Bank.