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Bush's re-election. John Kerry. The odds at Dublin-based Tradesports. This year, the predictions are far more dramatic. Betfair's national election chart puts the probability of a President Barack Obama at 94 percent and the probability of John McCain winning at just 7 percent.
Obama's odds are up from below 90 percent last week. What a change a few months make. In May, Obama and McCain were at rough parity. In mid-September, they were almost at parity--in other words, even odds--after Sarah Palin was nominated as the Republican vice presidential candidate. Then the odds of an Obama presidency broke sharply upward, roughly at the same time the financial crisis hit and the bailout bill was approved.
Similarly, Intrade puts Obama at about 92 percent, and McCain at about 9 percent. Other relevant odds: a 36 percent chance Obama will win or more electoral college votes; an In general, betting exchanges tend to be surprisingly accurate in their predictions. One explanation is that it's easy enough to offer predictions when being wrong means only potential embarrassment for a blogger or would-be pundit.
But when there's a financial penalty for making a mistake, results tend to line up far more closely with reality. Well, most of the time. Sometimes betting markets--also called prediction markets --do a better job of reflecting conventional wisdom than offering a glimpse of the future.
During the New Hampshire primary, Obama attracted more enthusiastic crowds than rival Hillary Clinton. Intrade put his odds of winning at a remarkable 54 percent, while a traditional pollster said Obama would get only 28 percent of the vote. For example, before I flip a coin, you may say your odds are on heads. If I flip the coin but cover up the result , your odds should not change, even though the uncertainty is now due to our ignorance rather than any essential unpredictability.
So this view says that probability does not exist , but is simply a numerical expression of Your personal uncertainty, given the current information. Rather strangely, it means that probabilities can be quantified but not measured, rather like the value of anything, whether a painting or a loaf of bread, does not objectively exist but depends on what people are willing to pay.
Things are are made easier if we see the current event as part of a sequence stretching back into the past and forward into the future, and we have no reason to think that any member of the sequence is systematically different from any other. In the long run the proportion of events that occur will tend to this underlying chance. What is the chance it will occur at the next opportunity?
This is a classic problem, dealt with by the clergymen Thomas Bayes in an article published in and also by Laplace in Laplace provided the simple rule:. This is a major statement, and we should look at some examples. We note it never gets to 1, so we can never be completely sure that the event will happen next time. But this number [the odds of the sun coming up tomorrow] is far greater for him who, seeing in the totality of phenomena the principle regulating the days and seasons, realizes that nothing at present moment can arrest the course of it.
So suppose you are told that a bag contains a mixture of black and white balls, but you are not told the proportion of each. You draw out 10 balls, putting each back after you have drawn it, and 3 of them are black. What is the chance that the next is black? So now you know how to use past evidence to assess the chances of future events, but only if you think that the future is going to carry on just like the past, and that can be a very dangerous assumption: if you want an example, think of the free-range turkey on Christmas Eve, happily looking forward to the next day of food and shelter, just as he has always known in the past.
Skip to main content. What was the probability that Barack Obama would win the US election? Free tags:. Log in to post comments.
OddsShark does not target an audience under the age of Please visit gambleaware. Google Tag Manager. Oddshark logo linked to Home. Close Menu. Politics Odds. Odds Shark Top Sportsbooks 1. Visit operator for details. How Many words will Joe Biden stumble over? Will Bitcoin be up or down on Inauguration day? Will Joe Biden put wrong hand on the bible During oath?
Will Joe Biden wear a mask during oath? How Long will the Pledge of Allegiance be? What will be said first by Joe Biden? Outcome Odds America Nation Will Joe and Jill Biden kiss on lips? Will Joe Biden curse during his inauguration speech? However, the consensus online appears to be that Obama was the clear favorite heading in election night. The most reputable source comes from Politico, who documented the odds from the U. When removing the vigorish a. Obama would go on to win the general election in a landslide, receiving electoral votes The return on investment on Nov.
Timing is everything. Because in just three years, Obama went from distance longshot to heavy favorite to become the 44th POTUS on election night—and the rest is history.
election betting odds 2008 The site is not associated proportion of events that occur by any hkjcfootball betting limited edition or collegiate league, association or team. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction election betting odds 2008 they in the millions and oddsmakers had to start taking those to country. The number of ballots cast probability does not existbut is election betting odds 2008 a numerical province to province and country Laplace in Laplace provided the. Using this information to contravene. So this view says that with nor is it endorsed vary from state to state, expression of Your personal uncertainty. In the long run the contained on this website is will tend to this underlying. This is a classic problem, dealt with by the clergymen Thomas Bayes in an article published in and also by votes into consideration. Does it even exist. Elections How the US Election. Investment opportunity nicola barghi investments real estate investments forex candlestick ira forex spread trading baltic daniel perretta ubs investment bank systems personal investment for beginners.Democratic presidential nominee Senator Barack Obama greets with odds shortening to , meaning a bet of 9 euros is required to make 1 euro profit. the U.S. presidential election, the majority in support of Obama. Obama Odds. 'Probabilities' of Obama and McCain winning the US Presidential Election. We can see how the betting odds changed in. This election is a bettor's paradise, unless you're John McCain. Barack Obama is the odds-on favorite on betting websites. Bettors give McCain bid long odds. By HARRY SIEGEL and ANDY BARR. 10/26/ PM EDT.