The thinking is that Biden may opt to let Harris take the reigns in the next Presidential election cycle, due to the fact that Biden will be years-old three years from now. The first deciding events are the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which usually take place in February.
By the time Iowans and New Hampshirites gather to make their decisions, bettors in the United Kingdom and around Europe should have a good idea of who is in the running for the nominations of both parties. Given the recent historic turnout in Black communities in major cities around the country, Harris makes sense as the front-runner right now.
The Democrats may want to maximize that momentum by nominating Harris instead of pushing for a second term for Biden. If they do so, that would be a first. If the Democrats do nominate Harris in , it will be historic for other reasons, however.
No major party has ever nominated an African-American woman for president, for example. The possible scenario has only played out one other time in US history. Only Grover Cleveland has served two non-consecutive terms as president in US history, serving his first from and his second from Despite the fact that Trump just got the second-most votes for a presidential candidate in US history, there is one big reason why he may have an uphill climb to secure a third nomination from the Republican Party.
In June of , Trump will turn 78 years old. That would make him the oldest major-party presidential candidate in US history, setting him up to be pushing 83 when his potential second term would end. By a similar measure, Trump also had more people vote for his opponent than any other incumbent in US history. Either Haley or Ivanka Trump would be the first female presidential nominee in the history of the Republican Party.
Ivanka Trump would also be the first daughter of a president to receive such a nomination. The ex-President, largely silent without his Twitter account, continues to cast a long shadow over the party. But, according to recent polling, it takes more than the Trump name to rule the roost. In a poll of who voters favor in a Republican primary without Trump, Pence carried the day. A reminder: Political betting is not legal in the United States, but it is over in Europe.
Note: Now that we have a new president, our daily Presidential Odds Tracker switches over to a weekly tracker — at least until the campaign heats up. Ronald Reagan was just shy of 74 when he was reelected. Until the move from DeSantis, Pence had seen the biggest bump since then — making the case, perhaps, that his move to gain separation from Trump is helping.
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