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Hayley Turner, Britain's most successful female jockey, has been suspended for three months for betting offences. Gallops Turner. Reply as Anonymous. Top stories. News Article. Updated 4 hours ago. Hawkesbury News: 10th February Brian McGrath lands breakthrough city success. Thompson hoping for Dream start in Apollo. Grandslam to make autumn return in C S Hayes Stakes. Something went wrong! Remember me Forgot Password?
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|Vegas betting on nfl games||Is it the end for overbetting the turner bouncer? Back to top Home News U. However, because variance is exponentially related to return, we find that cutting the bet size in half causes only a nominal reduction in expected growth, but square roots the variance. Grandslam to make autumn return in C S Hayes Stakes. Sports News.|
|Overbetting the turner||I wasn't worried though, because the story is always the same with these guys. Thompson hoping for Dream start in Apollo. The year-old, overbetting the turner has also been working as a pundit on ITV, subsequently took part in some invitational events and renewed her licence to ride in some warm-up events. I like something. Lerne aus kennen! However, to investors who are often investing money for a shorter period of time and expecting immediate and consistent returns, this relatively high short term risk and volatility is unacceptable. It turns out that someone betting 1.|
In fact, many of us have tried this with a hand like AK hoping to get a fold from weak pairs to no avail. Use this tendency of your opponent to get more value out of your big hands. The same thing applies on less dynamic flops in multi-way pots which are common in small stakes tournaments. You can probably still start with an overbet because these players are often incapable of folding top pair and there is a reasonable chance that someone has a Ten when there are that many people in the pot.
Preflop overbets are discussed so infrequently that many may not understand what I mean. Like postflop, I just mean any bet that is more than the size of the pot. This does not matter in soft small stakes tournaments because these players will still call with hands like AK or QQ. Sometimes, loose players will put you on AK and call with even worse pairs. This is also a good idea when facing aggression postflop in these games.
Recently, I played a hand where I opened JJ and was called by an extremely loose player on the button. I made an overbet on a JTT flop that contained a flush draw. My opponent made a small raise indicating he had better than top pair or a strong draw.
I made an overbet jam for big blinds and he instantly called me with T2o. Becoming more comfortable with overbetting is the best way to maximally exploit these players. The best spots to overbet as a bluff are spots where you expect your normal big bet size to almost always get called and you have a reasonably strong draw. These usually occur on the turn or river. Your opponent decides to check back. Most players in these games c-bet too often on Ace-high boards with top pair plus and with their bluffs.
They check back with the intention of calling your turn bet. If the turn is a card like an 8 that gives you a good draw, this is a good time to consider an overbet bluff to give them second thoughts about calling you. It needs to work even less often if there is a good chance that a Queen or Jack gives you the best hand as well.
If they do decide to call and the flush draw comes in, you can often make another overbet on the river to rep it since it is squarely in your range and not theirs given that they declined to bet the flop. Never make a bet that you would be unwilling or unable to match if you should have to split a pair or double down.
You have an advantage over the dealer only if you are willing and able to play the hands correctly. Although a time comes during a losing streak when you should stop, namely, when you run out of pocket cash, no rule for stopping governs a winning streak. The probability of your winning the next hand from an honest dealer is the same whether you have been losing or winning.
Quitting offers no advantage when you are a certain number of dollars ahead. Cheer up — you did the right thing in continuing to play. No optimal stopping rules exist. You never know whether you are right now at a high point or whether you will continue to win in the hours ahead. If you are playing correctly, the chances of your winning another thousand dollars always exceed the chances of your losing another thousand dollars.
Never become apprehensive, and never become satisfied. If you think you are being cheated, then of course stop betting. Your chance of being cheated by a dealer in a legal casino in Nevada or other well-regulated jurisdictions is close to zero. Excerpted with permission from the e-book version of Professional Blackjack by Stanford Wong.
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Are you a New User?. Sign-up here. Or Sign-in with. I like something. I dislike something. I have an idea. Home Form Form. Racing Racing. International International. Lookup Lookup. Sports Sports. Shop Shop. Other Other. Three-month ban for Turner over betting. Hayley Turner, Britain's most successful female jockey, has been suspended for three months for betting offences. Gallops Turner. Reply as Anonymous. Top stories. To an academic, this is immaterial, since they can keep their eyes on the long run expected growth.
However, to investors who are often investing money for a shorter period of time and expecting immediate and consistent returns, this relatively high short term risk and volatility is unacceptable. However, because variance is exponentially related to return, we find that cutting the bet size in half causes only a nominal reduction in expected growth, but square roots the variance.
Betting one half Kelly unit instead of a full unit also helps prevent accidental over betting when we may have overestimated our edge, and we have already examined how destructive this can be. In this case, he should have bet only 5. In this case, the win percentage miscalculation would have caused him to mistakenly bet twice the determined appropriate bet size… and he would have bet 1. Full Kelly wagering is optimal when you know the odds exactly as might a card counter who is aware of precisely which cards remain , but is too dangerous when positive expectation wagers are less certain.
Bob still strives to estimate his win probabilities exactly, but even so, some degree of uncertainty exists. Bettors are well advised to halve or even third their bet sizes to cut down immensely on volatility while sacrificing relatively little expected growth.
However, their concepts of money management are so poor that almost all of them over bet wildly, driving their long term expectation to zero, and they all end up completely broke. The following anecdote, which could be any one of a million different bettors, illustrates the dangers of over betting:.
I wasn't worried though, because the story is always the same with these guys. Three weeks after he started, Archie was broke. Archie is a prototypical gambler with absolutely no investment discipline.