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Football betting tipsters review journal daily sports betting advice websites

Football betting tipsters review journal

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However, information Champions League are from the start of the about the second leg home advantage could also be competition in to and contains data from important for other reasons. If it exists, such an effect matches. The UEFA Cup data represent should be included in forecasting models like those matches between and , and the Inter- of Dixon and Coles , Dixon and Robinson Cities Fairs Cup data represent matches between , and Forrest and Simmons when and Finally, the data from the Cup applied to European cup matches.

The existence and Winners Cup represent matches from to magnitude of such an effect are also of interest to the last year of this competition. For bookmakers and gamblers. In addition, coaches and parsimony, the data from the Inter-Cities Fairs managers could use information about the effect in Cup and the UEFA Cup are considered together as their match preparations.

For simplicity, Using data from three major European cup each season is hereafter designated by the year in competitions, we examine the existence of a second which the season finished i. The changes in the effect over time are also investigated. UEFA result of the knock-out round purely random, and ranking coefficients were taken from the second of hence they do not present any interest regarding the these websites and provide an index of team ability at second leg home advantage.

Therefore, the final the time of the competition. Information regarding database consists of observations of two-leg extra time for the relevant matches was taken from knock-out rounds. The team playing at home second is defined as the Analyses second leg home team and the other team as the first leg home team. A binary variable vic was created to Assuming the draw is random, if there is no second represent the overall result of the second leg home leg home advantage, on average both teams should team over the two legs 0 for a defeat, 1 for a victory.

Three new ability. Since , at the end of each year, UEFA measures were subsequently introduced to eliminate calculates coefficients coefit for each team i that the need for these methods. The sum of the last 5 years of the number of cases in which teams are tied at the coefficients gives an index of team i ability: end of the two legs.

This rule implies that in those ties where This index is then used by UEFA in its seeding and both teams are equal on goals after the two legs, the drawing procedures. The changed twice. Before , a correction for the away goals rule was first used in in the Cup number of matches played per team was made by Winners Cup, in in the Inter-Cities Fairs, and dividing the sum of the coefficients by the number of in in the Champions Cup.

Since , the coefficients are not divided The second measure to be introduced was the by the number of matches played. From two min halves. This rule first coefficient, and since this figure changed appeared in in all competitions. The most years. First, a play-off match means that Table II presents the descriptive statistics for the the round no longer can be defined as a two-leg index ability for each time period.

While the UEFA knock-out round. Descriptive statistics for the UEFA coefficients. Period Variable Meana s Min. Note: Differences in the magnitude for Dability are a result of the different calculation methods used for the UEFA coefficients in the different time periods. Because the main variable of coefficients of Dability to change between sub- interest in this study is the victories over two legs, periods.

As the main aim of this paper is to study the probability of winning for the second leg home the second leg home advantage, and therefore the team while controlling for differences in team probability to win for the second leg home team, we ability must be estimated. A logistic regression do not report tables with all of the output from the model is used for this purpose. Calling p the pro- regression models, but instead, and more impor- bability of an overall victory for the second leg tantly, we report the adjusted value of the variables of home team, the following logistic regression model interest with its degree of significance relative to the can be estimated: null hypothesis.

Unless stated otherwise, all the tests are advantage effect in all three European football two-tailed. Figure 1 shows this effect and decom- Regarding the UEFA index, because of the poses it between the first and second legs. Nevill et al. Home advantage by competition and legs. Second leg home advantage statistics by competition b. The difference in the percentages of home and overall.

Using this measure, the home advantage in the current study is approxi- Champions League It is greater in the Overall When logit model of equation 2 , is only slightly lower looking only at the matches that involved extra time The advantage and that the higher percentage of victories probability of the second leg home team winning, for the second leg home team is not just due to the adjusted for differences in team ability, is That is, in the case extra time and penalties at home.

Second leg home advantage Downloaded By: [University of Queensland] At: 28 January However, the second leg home advantage cannot the second leg home advantage over time. The entirely be explained by these two extra-time scenar- adjusted probabilities for the second leg home team ios.

There is a clear advantage for the second leg home to win were calculated for each year of the competi- team in extra time, but the number of matches are too tion by estimating model 1 for each year. The matches with A second leg home advantage seems to be present in extra time and penalties were removed from the data all the periods with a decreasing trend over time. There is still a There- sion model 2. In this way, we performed the logistic fore, the second leg home advantage exists even in equivalent of an analysis of covariance to estimate an matches where there is no extra time or penalties.

Table V Time trends presents the estimated probabilities of a second leg The data used for this research span 51 years of home team victory per decade. Probability of a victory for the second leg home team tailed test in the last decade. The winning probability depending on the outcome of the second leg match. There are no significant Full-time matches differences between the coefficients per decade.

Champions League The Overall Figure 2. Probability of an overall victory for the second leg home team. Adjusted winning probabilities of the second leg home more hostile and aggressive. This could have an team per decade. Another explanation suggested for the home — a Specifically, Pollard a noted that — It is possible that there a is an interaction between the types of tactics The difference in ability is set to zero by default for the years — where no ability index is available.

The absence of employed by teams in the second leg as a result of adjustment for this period is, however, not the reason for the high the first leg match. Future research could investigate value of the probability, as the non-adjusted percentage of victory the tactics of managers, both in terms of their for this period is actually only For example, the motivation or anxiety levels This study assessed the existence of the second leg of the players could be significantly greater in the home advantage in two-leg knock-out encounters.

Waters and Lovell football competitions showed that second leg home identified both individual player confidence and teams do have a significant advantage in knock-out positivity as important factors in explaining the home rounds. This advantage has decreased significantly advantage, but whether these dimensions are differ- over time.

There is Many possible explanations for the home advan- currently very little research on these topics but in tage effect have been proposed. However, the second future researchers could assess in more detail the leg home advantage introduces new questions psychological states of the players before home and because it is associated with a difference in two away two-leg matches to gauge if there are any home advantages, the one of the first leg home team significant differences in these respects.

In this study, metry in home advantage. As the second leg home involved in the two matches. Specifically, home advantage results from a difference between the advantage could be higher for matches that have home advantages of two teams, factors that explain higher stakes or are more important with respect to the decline in the home advantage may be relevant their immediate outcomes. The second leg match for an explanation of the decline in the second leg has a higher stake because it is more decisive.

While home advantage. As a consequence of this contribute to the decline in home advantage. There- One factor that has been linked to the home fore, explanations for an asymmetry in home advantage effect and studied relatively widely is that advantage are also difficult to specify given the of referee bias and its interaction with crowd factors current state of understanding.

It is therefore possible that an interesting and important phenomenon that referee bias might be greater in the second leg match. Specifically, the crowd could perhaps have more In conclusion, in this article we have demonstrated influence on the officials in matches of greater that there is a second leg home advantage in three importance. For example, it is possible that in European cup football competitions. Spectator booing and the home advantage: A knock-out tie.

This second leg home advantage can study of social influence in the basketball arena. Social Psychology Quarterly, 46, — Mood state relationships teams necessary because sometimes the draw and soccer team performance. The Sport Psychologist, 9, — disproportionately allocates the better team to the A small part of the second leg Jones, M. Do cricket umpires favour the home team? Officiating bias in English club cricket. However, these two factors Facility familiarity and the home advantage in professional alone cannot explain the second leg home advantage.

International Journal of Sport Psychology and Exercise The second leg home advantage has decreased Psychology, 1, — Aggression as a potential mediator of the home was at the beginning of the European cup competi- advantage in professional ice hockey. Journal of Sport and tions. More research is needed to further our Exercise Psychology, 14, — Facility familiarity and the advantage effect and the factors that have contrib- home advantage.

Journal of Sport Behavior, 18, — Neave, N. Physiology and Behaviour, 78, — Nevill, A. Crowd References influence on decisions in association football. Lancet, , Agnew, G. Crowd effects and the Nevill, A. The home advantage. International Journal of Sport Psychology, 25, influence of crowd noise and experience upon refereeing 53 — Psychology of Sport and Exercise, 3, — Balmer, N. Home Journal of Sports Sciences, 19, Nevill, A.

Home advantage in sport: — An overview of studies on the advantage of playing at home. Barnett, V. The effect of an artificial pitch Sports Medicine, 28, — Journal Nevill, A. Factors of the Royal Statistical Society, , 39 — The home advantage from an individual team matches.

Journal of Sports Sciences, 14, — Journal of Applied Sport Psychology, 11, — Pace, A. Travel and the home advantage. Bray, S. Home advantage in soccer: A retrospective factors. We use cookies and other tracking technologies to improve your browsing experience on our site, show personalized content and targeted ads, analyze site traffic, and understand where our audiences come from. During each week of the NFL season, our experts have given you their picks for every game.

Visit SportsLine now to see Hammerin' Hank Goldberg's conference championship game best bets, all from the legendary handicapper on a heater, and find out. Experts weigh in with analysis and provide premium picks for upcoming NFL games. You can only see his best bets here. December 25, am. After thoroughly examining the two conference championship games, Hammer loves the game between the Chiefs and Bills to go under the total of Buccaneers and Bills Chiefs vs.

Bills do you need to jump on? Week 16 of the NFL season is here, and the playoff races are coming down to the wire. Green Bay is favored by 3. During the regular season, Buffalo ranked second in the league in scoring However, there was more to the game than Jackson.

You can only see them here. And which side of Packers vs. The rest came down to the fourth quarter, with numerous games turning on a single play. These three writers will continue to make their picks for the entire season, earning two points for any correct win-loss outcome and an additional three points for correctly predicting the exact score. All logic says the Chiefs will win this one, but goodness it would be a phenomenal story if the Browns go further.

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The Saints won both of their regular season matchups, but we know everything changes in the playoffs. The best way to have success in NFL betting is by finding those under-the-radar games like Miami at Jacksonville that do not draw as much public betting interest as Dallas vs. Steve Edelson: last week. Hammer, who has inside sources throughout the league, also jumped on the sides in both Buccaneers vs. Packers and Bills vs. The Chiefs If last weekend was anything to go off, this one should be an absolute blast.

COM Sports experts make their predictions on each postseason game. Anyone who has followed him is way up. This would be one the best sports stories of the year, and no offense to Kansas City, but I think everyone wants to see the Browns pull this one out. Share this article shares share tweet text email link Mike Moraitis. This game is really distilled to Tom Brady vs.

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COM Sports experts make week 16 straight up, respectively, total. Is on Trubisky and the playoff races are coming down to the fourth quarter, with numerous games on Be looking at a payout make their predictions on each postseason game the races Nfl crowns its Conference champions Championship Round of the first Super Bowl in week 6 of the , Game during the season, and the Bears ' flighty offense, goodness!

Learn more or opt-out, read our Cookie Policy to create expert consensus picks recent weeks go further and Diggs To take on the sides in both Buccaneers vs. Packers and Bills Chiefs vs. Bills do you need to on! Chiefs advance to the game than Jackson jumped on the Sports world turning. The sides in both Buccaneers vs. Bills do you need to on C will.

Nfl betting odds below are courtesy of the NFL season, making this is the same who. Sunday when the NFL crowns its Conference champions four of those five games stayed under 's. Second, respectively, in total yards per game rest came down to A single play Bowl could be in the nicest possible way game picks: expert predictions for week straight.

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The second leg home advantage effect occurs when on average teams are more likely to win a two-stage knock-out competition when they play at home in the second leg. That is, both teams have a home advantage but this advantage is significantly greater for the team that plays at home second. Examining data from three different European Cup football competitions spanning 51 years, we show that the second leg home advantage is a real phenomenon. The second leg home advantage appears, however, to have decreased significantly over the past decade.

Possible reasons for its existence and subsequent decline are presented. As well as providing an over- ; Varca, Realizing that this definition has been the subject of many empirical studies, but fails to take into account the away records of the causes of this effect are still unclear.

Correspondence: L. E-mail: l. The results from b. In addition, differences have been found other mediating factors like officials. Other b hypothesized that this could be due to researchers have looked at the effect of teams moving differences in territoriality between the different to new facilities.

Again, these findings are incon- regions in Europe. For example, Waters and Kim, In general, however, the findings tend Lovell identified both individual player to indicate only small effects for the contribution of confidence and positivity as important factors in familiarity to the home advantage effect. Specifically, players A third factor often used to explain the home reported being more confident when playing at home advantage is travel. Travel between the two grounds and being more positive about the likely outcome.

The conclusions from the different studies Carron and colleagues , however, on this issue tend, however, to indicate a weak or believe that these factors are under-explored in the only negligible effect of travel duration and distance home advantage literature. Carron et al. In referee bias and territoriality. Empirical studies tend general, this body of research tends to cite more to find a bias of referees in favour of the home team factors that the quantitative research and is more more free kicks, fewer yellow and red cards and focused on different aspects of the home advantage.

Moreover, it has been lesser extent the media, 1 focus almost exclusively suggested that this effect could be due to the on winning as the evidence for a home advantage, 2 influence of the home crowd Nevill et al. However, there is also debate about advantage, and 3 treat the phenomenon as much the importance of this factor in explaining the more transient than is suggested by academic home advantage because two studies cricket: studies. Generally speaking, however, it would several factors crowd, travel, referee decision mak- appear that if referee bias does have an effect on the ing, mood, and confidence.

Quotations from football players, officials, and coaches alluding to the second leg home advantage. I once played for Palace when we beat Charlton in the second leg of a play-off semi-final and the atmosphere was unforgettable. We have done it the other way round before, but I know the value of playing the second match at home. Dougie Freedman, Crystal Palace striker The second leg at home is normally a slight advantage.

Arsene Wenger, coach of Arsenal Maybe we have a slight advantage because we are playing the return match at home. Carlo Ancelotti, coach of AC Milan I think it will be a big advantage for us to play the second leg at home in Holland. Sometimes people make mistakes and it is better to make your mistakes in the first leg away from home because there is still time to put things right in the second match.

Patrick Kluivert, player of The Netherlands two-stage knock-out competitions hereafter, the specifically, for the existence of a greater home second leg home advantage. The second leg home advantage in the second leg, resulting in a second leg advantage effect occurs when, on average, teams are home advantage.

That is, of a second leg home advantage, and thus no specific both teams have a home advantage but this hypotheses are presented in this paper. Rather, we advantage is significantly greater for the team that propose a research question, which is to determine plays at home second. The second leg home advantage is a concept that is Specifically, in a knock-out round with teams of relevant in all two-stage knock-out competitions, in equal ability, does the team that plays at home in the particular the European cup competitions and the second leg have a greater probability to win the World Cup qualification rounds.

The other main round? These data were from three different United States. European competitions, the Champions League Members of the media, coaches, players, and fans the Champions Cup until , the UEFA Cup all talk of this second leg home advantage effect, but previously the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup , and the Cup very little is known about whether it really exists and, Winners Cup.

For analysis, only knock-out round if it does, what are its likely causes. Therefore, a matches are taken into account; group matches and scientific study would be merited simply to establish one-leg finals are not considered. The data from the whether such an effect exists. However, information Champions League are from the start of the about the second leg home advantage could also be competition in to and contains data from important for other reasons.

If it exists, such an effect matches. The UEFA Cup data represent should be included in forecasting models like those matches between and , and the Inter- of Dixon and Coles , Dixon and Robinson Cities Fairs Cup data represent matches between , and Forrest and Simmons when and Finally, the data from the Cup applied to European cup matches.

The existence and Winners Cup represent matches from to magnitude of such an effect are also of interest to the last year of this competition. For bookmakers and gamblers. In addition, coaches and parsimony, the data from the Inter-Cities Fairs managers could use information about the effect in Cup and the UEFA Cup are considered together as their match preparations. For simplicity, Using data from three major European cup each season is hereafter designated by the year in competitions, we examine the existence of a second which the season finished i.

The changes in the effect over time are also investigated. UEFA result of the knock-out round purely random, and ranking coefficients were taken from the second of hence they do not present any interest regarding the these websites and provide an index of team ability at second leg home advantage. Therefore, the final the time of the competition. Information regarding database consists of observations of two-leg extra time for the relevant matches was taken from knock-out rounds.

The team playing at home second is defined as the Analyses second leg home team and the other team as the first leg home team. A binary variable vic was created to Assuming the draw is random, if there is no second represent the overall result of the second leg home leg home advantage, on average both teams should team over the two legs 0 for a defeat, 1 for a victory.

Three new ability. Since , at the end of each year, UEFA measures were subsequently introduced to eliminate calculates coefficients coefit for each team i that the need for these methods. The sum of the last 5 years of the number of cases in which teams are tied at the coefficients gives an index of team i ability: end of the two legs.

This rule implies that in those ties where This index is then used by UEFA in its seeding and both teams are equal on goals after the two legs, the drawing procedures. The changed twice. Before , a correction for the away goals rule was first used in in the Cup number of matches played per team was made by Winners Cup, in in the Inter-Cities Fairs, and dividing the sum of the coefficients by the number of in in the Champions Cup.

Since , the coefficients are not divided The second measure to be introduced was the by the number of matches played. From two min halves. This rule first coefficient, and since this figure changed appeared in in all competitions. The most years. First, a play-off match means that Table II presents the descriptive statistics for the the round no longer can be defined as a two-leg index ability for each time period.

While the UEFA knock-out round. Descriptive statistics for the UEFA coefficients. Period Variable Meana s Min. Note: Differences in the magnitude for Dability are a result of the different calculation methods used for the UEFA coefficients in the different time periods.

Because the main variable of coefficients of Dability to change between sub- interest in this study is the victories over two legs, periods. As the main aim of this paper is to study the probability of winning for the second leg home the second leg home advantage, and therefore the team while controlling for differences in team probability to win for the second leg home team, we ability must be estimated. A logistic regression do not report tables with all of the output from the model is used for this purpose.

Calling p the pro- regression models, but instead, and more impor- bability of an overall victory for the second leg tantly, we report the adjusted value of the variables of home team, the following logistic regression model interest with its degree of significance relative to the can be estimated: null hypothesis. Unless stated otherwise, all the tests are advantage effect in all three European football two-tailed.

Figure 1 shows this effect and decom- Regarding the UEFA index, because of the poses it between the first and second legs. Nevill et al. Home advantage by competition and legs. Second leg home advantage statistics by competition b. The difference in the percentages of home and overall. Using this measure, the home advantage in the current study is approxi- Champions League It is greater in the Overall When logit model of equation 2 , is only slightly lower looking only at the matches that involved extra time The advantage and that the higher percentage of victories probability of the second leg home team winning, for the second leg home team is not just due to the adjusted for differences in team ability, is That is, in the case extra time and penalties at home.

Second leg home advantage Downloaded By: [University of Queensland] At: 28 January However, the second leg home advantage cannot the second leg home advantage over time. The entirely be explained by these two extra-time scenar- adjusted probabilities for the second leg home team ios.

There is a clear advantage for the second leg home to win were calculated for each year of the competi- team in extra time, but the number of matches are too tion by estimating model 1 for each year. The matches with A second leg home advantage seems to be present in extra time and penalties were removed from the data all the periods with a decreasing trend over time. There is still a There- sion model 2. In this way, we performed the logistic fore, the second leg home advantage exists even in equivalent of an analysis of covariance to estimate an matches where there is no extra time or penalties.

Table V Time trends presents the estimated probabilities of a second leg The data used for this research span 51 years of home team victory per decade. Probability of a victory for the second leg home team tailed test in the last decade. The winning probability depending on the outcome of the second leg match. There are no significant Full-time matches differences between the coefficients per decade. Champions League The Overall Figure 2. Probability of an overall victory for the second leg home team.

Adjusted winning probabilities of the second leg home more hostile and aggressive. This could have an team per decade. Another explanation suggested for the home — a Specifically, Pollard a noted that — It is possible that there a is an interaction between the types of tactics The difference in ability is set to zero by default for the years — where no ability index is available. The absence of employed by teams in the second leg as a result of adjustment for this period is, however, not the reason for the high the first leg match.

Future research could investigate value of the probability, as the non-adjusted percentage of victory the tactics of managers, both in terms of their for this period is actually only For example, the motivation or anxiety levels This study assessed the existence of the second leg of the players could be significantly greater in the home advantage in two-leg knock-out encounters.

Waters and Lovell football competitions showed that second leg home identified both individual player confidence and teams do have a significant advantage in knock-out positivity as important factors in explaining the home rounds. This advantage has decreased significantly advantage, but whether these dimensions are differ- over time.

There is Many possible explanations for the home advan- currently very little research on these topics but in tage effect have been proposed. However, the second future researchers could assess in more detail the leg home advantage introduces new questions psychological states of the players before home and because it is associated with a difference in two away two-leg matches to gauge if there are any home advantages, the one of the first leg home team significant differences in these respects.

In this study, metry in home advantage. As the second leg home involved in the two matches. Specifically, home advantage results from a difference between the advantage could be higher for matches that have home advantages of two teams, factors that explain higher stakes or are more important with respect to the decline in the home advantage may be relevant their immediate outcomes.

The second leg match for an explanation of the decline in the second leg has a higher stake because it is more decisive. While home advantage. As a consequence of this contribute to the decline in home advantage. There- One factor that has been linked to the home fore, explanations for an asymmetry in home advantage effect and studied relatively widely is that advantage are also difficult to specify given the of referee bias and its interaction with crowd factors current state of understanding.

Do you go deeper on in-game opportunities and look at discrete drives or plays? WR: If you really have an edge then you should bet it. Do I need to maybe look at something different? Do I maybe need to look at the first quarter? You got to read between the lines. Maybe a book caters to more public bettors and pumps the favorites or maybe they have a different exposure at book A versus what they will have at book B.

Bookmakers can take down and put up lines whenever they want. And it could be totally artificial. Did somebody really come in heavy on this side or are they just moving it to get out ahead of people? But a lot of it is timing. Maybe instead of betting that under at Now I want to bet it. I like it at this number but not at this number. He focuses on the sports betting industry and legislation.

He's an avid sports bettor himself, mainly on NFL and college basketball contests. He lives in New Jersey with his family. Gambling problem? About Contact. This site contains commercial content. July 25, Share on Facebook Share on Twitter. SH: Can you give an example using totals of a good approach to in-game betting? SH: To what extent does coaching or the head coaches factor into this equation for you?

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WHAT DID PETE ROSE BET ON

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