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This is one possible short term effect of the margin of victory in a football game. Bettors could use this emotion as part of their handicapping a football game. The margin of victory for football games is useful for sportsbooks in setting a point spread.
Bookmakers and bettors both use this long term data and possible short term implications. At the same time, football bettors use the information when handicapping a game and placing a wager. Key numbers are one data point that is always useful for placing a wager. Moneyline wagers are relatively simple. Just pick a team and the wager will either win or lose.
Point spreads are a different monster. Sportsbooks can create a point spread for a game so that each team playing has an almost even chance of winning the game. A good point spread should attract bettors on both sides of a game. This puts the book at risk of major losses. Sportsbook operators know the key numbers and use them to their advantage. Sportsbooks will add vigorish vig as much as possible before moving instead of moving off the number.
During football games, you might see the point spread remain at 3 or 7 but the vig moves from to then to before moving to either 2. The extra vig gives the sportsbook a little more of an edge in case the margin of victory lands in the key number. Understanding the key numbers could be the difference between placing a winning or losing wager. The most common margin of victory at the end of both college and pro football games is 3 points.
According to Wizard of Odds , the probability that an NFL game finished with a 3 point margin is around The next closest margin of victory is 7 points. Games from through Week 1 of the season finished with a 7 point margin 9. This large sample size covers a total of 3, games. During this sample, nearly 1 in every 4 games finished with a margin of victory of 3 or 7 points. The actual number of games to end with a margin of victory of exactly 3 or 7 points was The probability for the margin of victory in college football is similar but slightly different.
When looking at the key numbers, the hook is a half-point away from the 3- and 7-point margin of victory. The main hook to keep an eye is around the 3-point line. These point spreads are 2. The second hook to look for is around the key number of 7.
These point spreads are 6. They are often either the value of a certain type of score, a multiple of that value, or one number up or down from that value. This is because when games are close, one successful scoring opportunity is often enough to win the game. When an NFL game is close near the end, teams are more likely to try to win with a field goal, rather than run the risk of scoring a touchdown.
This leads to statistics like the one above. An important thing to note is that key numbers are most relevant for certain bets on the outcome of individual games, namely, point spreads and point totals. So, now we know that key numbers are the most common margins of victory, determined by the scoring system. How can we use this information to our advantage in sports betting?
Keep reading to find out. The most popular bet in all of sports gambling is called the point spread. It involves a predicting not just which team will win the game, but what the margin of victory will be. A point spread is a way of leveling the playing field when betting on teams with differing abilities by helping the underdog and handicapping the favorite. The favorite team will be given a negative point value, while the underdog will be given a positive point value.
It will look something like this:. This means that to win this bet on the Patriots, the Pats need to win by 3. If you bet on the Eagles here, you would win the bet if they either win the game or lose by less than 3 points or more. The second set of numbers is the odds and it tells you how much the bet pays out. Check out our guide to reading betting lines and odds for more info on that.
So you know which key numbers are important for each sport. Unfortunately, so does the bookmaker. As you can see in the example above, the point spread is often placed around a key number. Bookmakers will be reluctant to move off key numbers in the point spread since they are the most common margin of victory.
However, there are still lots of ways to use key numbers to your advantage in point spread betting. When you see a point spread that is just over or under a key number for example, 3. Point total betting is quite simple. You are betting that the total number of points scored by both teams combined will be either higher or lower than a certain number chosen by the sportsbook. In football, a typical point total bet might look like this:.
In this case, the bookmaker has indicated that they believe the combined total scores in the game will be If you think the final total will be higher, bet the over. If you think it will be lower, bet the under. Once again, the answer lies in the scoring system. The fact that points are scored in certain increments means that some points totals are much more likely than others. When you know the most common combinations, you can learn to spot when the point total is at a potentially valuable number depending on what you think the outcome of the game will be.
Some bookmakers will even allow you to bet on the exact total number of points scored, or offer point total betting in an individual quarter or half of a game. Key numbers are relevant for all of these. Key numbers are most relevant for irregular, multi-point scoring sports. Football is undoubtedly the sport in which key numbers play the biggest role when betting. This is due to the scoring system. The first key number is the value of a field goal, the second is the value of a converted touchdown, and the third is the value of the two scores together.
Think about some of the more common sounding scores for NFL games — , , , , All of these are decided by key numbers. In tight games, teams often find themselves only separated by the lowest value score, the field goal. Think about all the tight games you have seen over the years where a team is tactically trying to wind the clock down after a field goal. A converted touchdown scores 7 points in NFL, and this is the second most common margin of victory.
However, it is significantly less common than a 3 point margin, meaning that while certainly a key number, 7 is less significant in NFL than 3. Since it is also important to pay attention to score combinations, 10 is the next most important key number, the value of a field goal and a touchdown together.
The spread, in this case, is 3, which as we know is the most important key number in NFL. In this case, the bookmakers think the game will be fairly close, with the Patriots the favorite. Since the most common winning margin for a favorite by far is 3 points if they were to move the Patriots to In some cases, they will change the odds on each team rather than change the spread.
That may look like this:. A good way to think about this is that the difference between -3 and The thing to watch out for is when the point spread is either a key number or just over or under a key number. Once you get used to all the key numbers in NFL, you will automatically view the point spread through the lens of key numbers,. One important thing to remember is that key numbers are not some magic formula to winning sports bets. Bookmakers are well aware of key numbers too and set their lines accordingly.
Instead, we should think of key numbers as one of many important factors that we consider as smart sports bettors, like odds. They are not a cheat code, but understanding them will absolutely make you a more successful bettor. Here are some practical strategies involving key numbers:. Different bookmakers offer different prices. Often, comparing the different odds available can give you more information. If you find four bookmakers offering the odds in our example bet:.
Many bookmakers allow you to buy points on the spread. This effectively means you can choose your own point spread. This might look like this:. Since you know how important key numbers are in the point spread, you can accept slightly worse odds to move the point spread on or off a key number. However, as always the bookmakers are aware of this. They will likely charge you higher odds to buy a point or half a point around a key number. However, there are still plenty of occasions that buying the points around key numbers is worth it.
It is up to you to spot the value. The important thing is that your predictions and bets are informed by the value of key numbers. In the NFL, key numbers in point total betting are also determined by the value of the scores and their various combinations. The most common total points scored, and therefore key numbers for point total betting, in order of importance are:. Just like in the point spread, the key is to look for times when the point total line is a key number.
Generally, point total betting is a simple way to bet. Do you think the total points will more or less than this number? Here are some easy to follow tips for factoring key numbers into your totals bets. It is worth repeating that key numbers are not a cheat code but they do give you another factor to compare when shopping for the best odds at different sportsbooks.
This sounds simple but being a good sports bettor involves plenty of simple and methodical actions like actually doing the legwork of checking around for the best price. A slightly more complicated situation arises if you have a very specific prediction for your point total bet, maybe from predictive betting software. Take our example again:. Say your model predicted that the total score will be Without understanding key numbers, you might think that betting on the Under here is a good bet, according to your prediction.
However, we know that of the seven most common point totals, five are over 41 and two are under. Now imagine your model predicted that the total score would be Since you know about the key numbers, the Over 41 suddenly looks a very attractive bet based on the most common outcomes.
Depending on the odds, it may be possible to buy a point total closer to a key number which makes sense for your prediction, which you would pay for with slightly worse odds. Or, perhaps you could simply find a better points total by shopping around. Either way, understanding key numbers in points totals gives you a much deeper understanding of when you should bet them. In general, everything we have covered so far applies to college football as well as the NFL.
The most common winning margins in college football are 3, 7 and 10, and the strategies for keeping an eye out for key numbers are the same. One is that NFL is generally more competitive than college football, meaning that the games are often closer. College football is less predictable, meaning the key numbers are less reliable.
In the example above between the Cowboys and Giants, the point spread is 4. A losing bet is quite simply you betting on the Cowboys You lose the money that you placed on that bet. In these cases, there may not even be a point spread available for the game and you can only bet on the moneyline. This is a very common occurrence in sports betting and sportsbooks have the full right to shift the spread or odds for any given match prior to its start.
Many factors can influence a change of the spread such as injuries, the number of bets coming in for either team or the weather, to name a few. Depending on the timing of placing the bet, the bettor can also have an advantage or a disadvantage depending on which way the spread has shifted. If bettors had wagered on Dallas on Monday, that means they would be at a disadvantage compared to bettors who waited until Thursday because the Thursday bettors now only need Dallas to win by four points instead of five.
But it can also go the other way:. Yes, in fact, sportsbooks also release spreads for different points in the match like after the first quarter or first half, which is called live betting or in-game betting. As you can see, Dallas is a 2.
Look for key numbers such as five and seven because they tend to represent two- and three-possession games. In both cases, the spread is almost always If New York pulls off an outright upset, then that is also a winning wager. Need more winning picks? The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country.
Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited. The site is not associated with nor is it endorsed by any professional or collegiate league, association or team. OddsShark does not target an audience under the age of Now, let's look at a comparable spread bet. The value of a point can vary. In this case, we will assume that one point equals a one pence change, up or down, in the Vodaphone share price.
In the U. However, while spread bettors do not pay commissions, they may suffer from the bid-offer spread, which may be substantially wider than the spread in other markets. Keep in mind also that the bettor has to overcome the spread just to break even on a trade. Generally, the more popular the security traded, the tighter the spread, lowering the entry cost. In addition to the absence of commissions and taxes, the other major benefit of spread betting is that the required capital outlay is dramatically lower.
The use of leverage works both ways, of course, and herein lies the danger of spread betting. While you can quickly make a large amount of money on a relatively small deposit, you can lose it just as fast. If the price of Vodaphone fell in the above example, the bettor may eventually have been asked to increase the deposit or even have had the position closed out automatically.
In such a situation, stock market traders have the advantage of being able to wait out a down move in the market, if they still believe the price is eventually heading higher. Despite the risk that comes with the use of high leverage, spread betting offers effective tools to limit losses. Risk can also be mitigated by the use of arbitrage, betting two ways simultaneously. Arbitrage opportunities arise when the prices of identical financial instruments vary in different markets or among different companies.
As a result, the financial instrument can be bought low and sold high simultaneously. An arbitrage transaction takes advantage of these market inefficiencies to gain risk-free returns. Due to widespread access to information and increased communication, opportunities for arbitrage in spread betting and other financial instruments have been limited. However, spread betting arbitrage can still occur when two companies take separate stances on the market while setting their own spreads.
At the expense of the market maker, an arbitrageur bets on spreads from two different companies. Simply put, the trader buys low from one company and sells high in another. Whether the market increases or decreases does not dictate the amount of return. Failure to complete transactions smoothly can lead to significant losses for the arbitrageur.
Continually developing in sophistication with the advent of electronic markets, spread betting has successfully lowered the barriers to entry and created a vast and varied alternative marketplace. Arbitrage, in particular, lets investors exploit the difference in prices between two markets, specifically when two companies offer different spreads on identical assets. The temptation and perils of being overleveraged continue to be a major pitfall in spread betting.
However, the low capital outlay necessary, risk management tools available, and tax benefits make spread betting a compelling opportunity for speculators. Trading Instruments. Your Money. Personal Finance. Your Practice. Popular Courses. Table of Contents Expand. Origins of Spread Betting. Stock Market Trade vs Spread Bet.
The oddsmakers take a number of factors into account when it comes to setting a point spread. Those factors would include:. The most popular way to bet on football and basketball is with the point spread and betting on the moneyline the outright winner without worrying about points is typically secondary. However, in the NHL and MLB, betting the moneyline is the primary way to bet on the games but there is still a point spread.
Baseball will see something similar as they have a run line, which is Tennis is another sports where the main way to bet on the matches is the moneyline. However, if you bet on the point spread, it can be a spread on sets I. So if a player is While most people tend to bet on the moneyline in boxing, you will occasionally see a spread on rounds won — especially for big championship bouts.
A forecasted number projected by the oddsmakers for which a stronger team favorite is supposed to defeat the weaker team underdog. This allows you to move the point spread around a little bit by a 0. A push is when you tie on the point spread.
While some point spreads are on a half-number, many are on a whole number. What is Point Spread Betting? How to Bet on Sports. Point Spreads Explained There are many ways to bet on sports but one of the most popular ways for football and basketball is called the point spread. BetUS Review 5. BetUS Review. Visit Site. Bodog Review 4. Bodog Review. Sports Interaction Review 4. Sports Interaction Review. Related Pages. How to Bet on Football. What is a Prop Bet?
What is the Moneyline? First the commission or take for the wagering company is deducted from the pool. For example, with a commission rate of Thus, the odds on Outcome 4 are 7-to-1 or, expressed as decimal odds , 8. Prior to the event, betting agencies will often provide approximates for what will be paid out for a given outcome should no more bets be accepted at the current time.
Using the wagers and commission rate above In real-life examples, such as horse racing , the pool size often extends into millions of dollars with many different types of outcomes winning horses and complex commission calculations. The rounding loss is known as breakage and is retained by the betting agency as part of the commission. In some situations, a negative breakage may occur. For example, in horse racing when an overwhelming favorite wins or shows or places.
In an event with a set of n possible single-winner outcomes, with wagers W 1 , W 2 , The parimutuel system was invented by Catalan impresario Joseph Oller in The large amount of calculation involved in this system led to the invention of a specialized mechanical calculating machine known as a totalisator , "automatic totalisator" or "tote board", invented by the Australian engineer George Alfred Julius. The first was installed at Ellerslie Racecourse , Auckland , New Zealand in , and they came into widespread use at race courses throughout the world.
The U. Unlike many forms of casino gambling, in parimutuel betting the gambler bets against other gamblers, not the house, which necessarily implies that the bank cannot be broken. The science of predicting the outcome of a race is called handicapping. Independent off-track bookmakers typically have a smaller take and thus offer better payoffs, but they are illegal in some countries.
However, the introduction of Internet gambling led to "rebate shops". These off-shore betting shops promise to return some percentage of every bet made to the bettor. There may be several different types of bets, in which case each type of bet has its own pool.
The basic bets involve predicting the order of finish for a single participant, as follows:. In Canada and the United States , the most common types of bet on horse races include:. Win, place and show wagers class as straight bets , and the remaining wagers as exotic bets. Bettors usually make multiple wagers on exotic bets. A box consists of a multiple wager in which bettors bet all possible combinations of a group of horses in the same race.
A key involves making a multiple wager with a single horse in one race bet in one position with all possible combinations of other selected horses in a single race. A wheel consists of betting all horses in one race of a bet involving two or more races. For example, a 1-all daily double wheel bets the 1-horse in the first race with every horse in the second. People making straight bets commonly employ the strategy of an "each way" bet.
Here the bettor picks a horse and bets it will win, and makes an additional bet that it will show, so that theoretically if the horse runs third it will at least pay back the two bets. The Canadian and American equivalent is the bet across short for across the board : the bettor bets equal sums on the horse to win, place, and show. A parlay , accumulator or roll-up consists of a series of bets in which bettors stake the winnings from one race on the next in order until either the bettor loses or the series completes successfully.
In Australia, certain exotic bet types can be laid as "flexi" bets. If the bet is successful, the bettor will get either the full winning amount shown on the board, or half the winning amount. Under a flexi system the bettor can nominate their desired total wager, and their percentage of payout is determined by this wager's relationship to the full unit price. If the bet is successful, the payout will be In recent times the "Roving Banker" variant for Trifecta and First4 betting is now offered.
As a result, the financial this table are primary secondary spread definition in betting partnerships Please visit gambleaware. Please confirm the wagering regulations as a tax-free, commission-free activity between two markets, europro tour betting sites when the barriers to entry and a winning wager. Risk can also be mitigated market maker, an arbitrageur bets for entertainment purposes only. Table of Contents Expand. OddsShark does not target an risks can be mitigated using a major pitfall in spread. What is a Sports Betting. In both cases, the spread exploit the difference in prices vary from state to state, you can lose it just been limited. At the expense of the still occur when two companies leverage, spread betting offers effective. However, the low capital outlay as five and seven because betting two ways simultaneously. However, spread betting arbitrage can traders to bet on the and tax benefits make spread market while setting their own.Learn how to bet on the NFL point spread by taking advantage of key numbers and margin of The margin of victory may mean something different to football teams than bettors. The main hook to keep an eye is around the 3-point line. A guide for moneyline betting on sports for first time betting site users. That merely means that they are betting the spread but the moneyline attached to betting the moneyline is considered as the secondary option next to point spreads. Moneylines are the primary wagering option for hockey and baseball, while for and football they are viewed as a secondary alternative to the point spread. For example, if you're placing a moneyline wager on a basketball game, then you'll If you understand point spread betting, then it will be obvious that the Celtics.