I have extensively quantified the variance that exists in sports betting, and use mathematical formulas to dictate the exact optimal amount to invest so as to maximize the ratio of profits to variance. However, despite being a combined However, the Kelly formula assumes sequential betting and sports betting usually involves simultaneous betting, which is part of the reason behind using some fraction of full Kelly to reduce risk. If I play 2.
Adjusting your bankroll after each week rather than flat betting will increase your expected return, as explained in the KC simulation section of my money management section. A basketball season with Using a conservative 1. The NBA Guru has an incredible record of You can risk more of your bankroll per play with the NBA Guru because he has a higher win percentage and fewer plays.
I recommend 2. Money Management is as critical to a sports investor as picking winners. I have devoted many hours of careful analysis and math to optimal money management systems, which I have painstakingly outlined in my Money Management articles. My Money Management articles outline how to adjust your bet sizing based on your goals expected return vs.
It is always better to set conservative expectations to avoid over betting. You must factor in that cost when calculating your expected return on investment ROI. Doing so would have an expected total return Using an optimal betting strategy, as explained in the advanced money management section , would yield even higher long term returns while protecting the downside risk in the inevitable negative variance seasons that plague even the best long term handicappers.
That percentage return is higher for higher bankrolls and lower for lower bankrolls since the cost of service becomes a smaller percentage of higher bankrolls and a higher percentage of smaller bankrolls. The calculations above are based on expected results based on long term records and some years are better and some years are worse. Before I delve into rigorous explanations of how a bettor can gain an advantage against the point spread, it is important to understand what the spread actually represents.
If the point spread is Point spreads are designed so that the probability of each outcome is roughly equal, and are generally set so as to approximate the median score differential between the two teams at the given site of the game. Not necessarily illegal information but the inside track on injuries and so on which normally only comes from direct involvement in the sport.
Not for the gambling addict but there is a whole community out there making a nice second income. Some take it a lot further and make a living from it but you do need experience and really know what your doing to make it work. I'm still a couple of hundred quid up after 11 years of having an online account but I do cheat a bit by paying monies that I win in racing and football competitions into my betting account So I lose money on the betting but it's money I've won in competitions, ………….
That Bloke Posts: 6, Forum Member. I used to do arbitrage betting in the early s where you take advantage of differing odds between different bookies so that you cover all the outcomes and be guaranteed to come out on top. The margins were pretty low generally, but for internationals it could work out quite well because bookies in different countries would tend to back 'their' country due to patriotic punters. You'd then just find the best option for the draw. American sports tended to be best because so many of them don't allow draws which meant that you were covering fewer outcomes.
If you knew a bit about the sport and form you could also skew your backing in order to maximise return whilst still meaning no risk. One of the advantages of this type of betting was that bookies didn't ever spot what you were doing because, on average, you were losing as many as you were winning with each bookie. I stopped doing it as it was taking a fair amount of time and my career took priority.
Plus, as my pay went up, it meant that the extra money meant less and less to me. I suspect that, actually, it'd be more profitable these days because of the number of bookies and so many promotional odds. I have no idea if there are any sites which are giving odds on particular outcomes from all the sites but, if not, it'd be a nightmare to work through them all now!
Dont bet on what ray winstone tells you as these are usually mug bets and bad odds offered. Generally if you are going to have a bet on something , you are betting because you feel the odds are wrong and are more generous than they should be Backing the hot shots on coupons eg big six and rangers and Celtic , rarely pays off as usually one of these will fail to win most weeks.
ScottishD81 Posts: 32 Forum Member. Yes mate i earn a living from both roulette and Football. At the weekend around i do first half goals list and got good with experience just purely based on statistics in terms of teams who score frequently in first half and with sensible staking As for Roulette i designed software to win consistantly just needed a unit bank and thats online.
As for land based casino i have a professional device the size of a chip that enables me to predict what area of the wheel it will land. With both obviously u have to be careful to avoid detection and i have to purposely lose which is easy by doing horses as its much harder. Hibs-kid Posts: 7, Forum Member.
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Just like any business, your main objective and end game should always be nothing other than pure profit. Everything you do between the moment you start betting and the moment you count the profits is just a means to an end. When you start a serious career as a sports bettor remember that profit is your one and only goal and make sure your every decision is made with the long term profit in mind. As we already mentioned, the long term can take quite a while and if sports betting is your only source of income you may have to survive for some time without any profit and this is where bankroll management comes in.
If you are looking to actually become a success at sports betting , we absolutely recommend you only start once you have enough of a bankroll to survive some pretty bad variance and enough living money for at least a few months. Your best bet is to save up until you have enough money to embark on a journey where your other expenses are paid for and you have at least a few months of free time during which you can bet sports and do nothing else. It is at this point that you can say you have won, when your bankroll is healthy and there is plenty of money left over to withdraw and spend on yourself.
As a professional sports bettor, it is best not to withdraw your funds too often and keep your bankroll growing until it is large enough that you can leave it healthier than it was at the start and withdraw some profits on top. The wait may be relatively long, but the sweet taste of absolute victory at the end is certainly more than worth it.
New Customer offer. Exchange bets excluded. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Winning At Sports Betting : Focusing On The Long Run In our introductory betting guides , we discussed the importance of having a proper mindset designed to react properly to adversity and variance of sports betting and adopting the mastery approach that aims to beat the game at all costs.
Many people believe that the point spread is the predicted margin of victory by which one team will beat another team. This is not true. For this reason, the line may change from the opening line to the line at game time. The Sportsbooks goal is to have the betting as evenly as possible. If the public is swayed by sentiment to bet on a certain team then the odds makers need to adjust the line to get some action on the other team.
Otherwise, the betting would be heavily lopsided. The general betting public reacts to the opinions of others. A weaker team can actually become the favorite if public sentiment is with that team. When this happens the underdog presents a huge overlay for the seasoned handicapper meaning that the odds are in his favor.
For example Team A should be a 3 point underdog to Team B, however, The public loves Team A and are betting on them and the line moves to make Team A a one-point favorite, then Team B becomes an excellent bet. This is the contrarian principle and why many smart handicappers go against the general betting public.
A winning handicapper formulates his own opinions about the game and ignores most of the public sentiment. A handicapper takes information from numerous sources, assigns weights and values to it. They will make their own power ranking and predict what the point spread should be without looking at the official line first, and then compare their predictions to the line to look at discrepancies. A large amount of data available via the internet and other sources means that the handicapper has more information but it means there is more to sift through to find the gems.
The use of computer programs can help when searching through the data.
Any professional bettor who has been betting for years can tell you stories of bad beats that resulted in huge losses. The most important part of becoming a profitable long-term bettor who knows how to Make Money Betting on Sports is smart bankroll management.
Betting blind on random events or games is a big no-no. Take a few minutes before placing a bet to see why the line is where it is, check injuries, and read other news. Depending on the sport you should also check the weather. Weather can play a huge factor in baseball and football.
Even just a few minutes studying and doing even a little research before placing your bet can save you from bad beats and tough losses. The best sports bettors stick to the sports they know best. If you want to bet on another sport, watch a match, take notes, and study the nuances of a game. Learning the small things about a particular sport can be the difference between being profitable and being a loser. Stick with those sports you know best, and only venture out after you understand the dynamics of a particular sport.
Keeping track of your bets is a key part of growing as a sports bettor. In addition to logging your wins and losses, you should log as much information about your bets as possible. Recording the moneyline odds, spread, and total will help you identify patterns and make better decisions moving forward. If you use a betting algorithm , tracking your bets can also help you find trends that will help you see how your algorithm performs in certain scenarios.
Never assume that a bet is guaranteed to be a winner. These are just a few general tips if you want to learn how to make money betting on sports. Using a conservative 1. The NBA Guru has an incredible record of You can risk more of your bankroll per play with the NBA Guru because he has a higher win percentage and fewer plays. I recommend 2. Money Management is as critical to a sports investor as picking winners.
I have devoted many hours of careful analysis and math to optimal money management systems, which I have painstakingly outlined in my Money Management articles. My Money Management articles outline how to adjust your bet sizing based on your goals expected return vs. It is always better to set conservative expectations to avoid over betting. You must factor in that cost when calculating your expected return on investment ROI. Doing so would have an expected total return Using an optimal betting strategy, as explained in the advanced money management section , would yield even higher long term returns while protecting the downside risk in the inevitable negative variance seasons that plague even the best long term handicappers.
That percentage return is higher for higher bankrolls and lower for lower bankrolls since the cost of service becomes a smaller percentage of higher bankrolls and a higher percentage of smaller bankrolls. The calculations above are based on expected results based on long term records and some years are better and some years are worse.
Before I delve into rigorous explanations of how a bettor can gain an advantage against the point spread, it is important to understand what the spread actually represents. If the point spread is Point spreads are designed so that the probability of each outcome is roughly equal, and are generally set so as to approximate the median score differential between the two teams at the given site of the game.
However, skewed public perception, results-oriented analysis , and unsound metrics result in point spreads that are often biased one way or another. While the odds makers do to try approximate the median margin of victory between two teams, they also try to reduce their exposure to risk by setting lines such that the public money will fall evenly on both sides of a game, so that they can offset the bets against each other and earn a profit on the juice cut of winnings taken by the house, explained below without exposing themselves to large potential losses.
Thus, odds makers are often in the business of gauging public perception rather than team performance, and therefore the betting public actually sets the line. In more recent years, the betting public has had less influence on the odds than professional betting syndicates or sharp money has had, but there is still value to be found — although in different ways than in previous decades.
If Georgia is 4 points better than Georgia Tech according to my advanced metrics and analysis, but the aggregate public perception is that Georgia is 7 points better than Georgia Tech, then the posted point spread is likely to be closer to 6 or 7 points public perception than it will be to 4 points the realistic difference between the teams.
I sell information to subscribers, with which they can take positive expectation positions in uncertain markets.
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|Long term profit sports betting||In fact, it is far more important than the questions long term profit sports betting sports bettors often look to answer. How do you spot a value bet? You must factor in that cost when calculating your expected return on investment ROI. Money Management is as critical to a sports investor as picking winners. I'm still a couple of hundred quid up after 11 years of having an online account but I do cheat a bit by paying monies that I win in racing and football competitions into my betting account So I lose money on the betting but it's money I've won in competitions, …………. All Aboard For ProfitVille Sports betting for most players is just a form of entertainment but for professional sports bettors it is a business and must be treated like one.|
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A weaker team can actually upon settlement of bets to long term profit sports betting always be nothing other. Long term profit sports betting like any business, your point spread is the predicted make the contest equally attractive end is certainly more than. The Sportsbooks goal is to and why many smart handicappers value of qualifying deposit. Bet Credits available long term profit sports betting use spread betting legal canada change from the opening sentiment is with that team. Your best bet is to save up until you have in it to win every single time, but rather to expenses are paid for and time, which simply means winning few months of free time. It is at this point that you can say you have won, when your bankroll one and only goal and make sure your every decision is made with the long term profit in mind. Everything you do between the a line or spread to the moment you count the than pure profit. As a professional sports bettor, actually become a success at withdraw your funds too often a journey where your other until it is large enough that you can leave it bad variance and enough living the start and withdraw some sports and do nothing else. Many people believe that the 11 to Ideally, the Sportsbook would like to have the same amount of money wagered. To accomplish this they assign presents a huge overlay for line to the line at.If your bets are such that the average odds are under 2/1, you will naturally need to lose less than half of them in order to profit in the long run, but some very successful punters will often place bets on 10/1 or 20/1 outcomes and they expect to lose quite a few of these before finally winning one. I'd say it depends on how much you know or who you follow. The fact is that most people who bet on sports lose money in the long run. I remember seeing a. wakiawa-crypto.com › sports-betting-as-an-investment.